Junior Eurovision 2022: My Top 16, Predictions & Possible Winners
- Nov 6, 2022
- 15 min read
Updated: Nov 24, 2022
So I guess I'm bringing this to the blog as well then. Here's my top 16 of the Junior Eurovision Contest 2022, as well as my comments on the songs.
My Top 16
United Kingdom
Ireland
Armenia
France
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Portugal
Netherlands
Spain
Poland
Italy
North Macedonia
Ukraine
Serbia
Malta
Albania
Comments:
Albania: Kejtlin Gjata - Pakëz Diell
Good vocal, but the song is incredibly flat. No stage presence either, and nothing in the song that makes it too interesting. A downgrade from 2021 definitely.
Armenia: Nare - DANCE!
A GREAT host entry. Someone tweeted that it sounds good enough to place well, but not so good that they would have to host again. I suppose kinda like Tic Tac, although I didn't like that last year. It's for sure less mature than Qami Qami, but still a great modern bop. Only complaint perhaps is the visible lack of, well, words. Too much instrumental, methinks. But otherwise, a really solid track. The "dance, dance, dance" part might also give the Netherlands some competition for the catchy element. Not really sure how they're gonna execute the dance break but we wait and see.
France: Lissandro - Oh Maman !
You might be surprised at its high placement here given how much I slagged it off on Twitter, but I can't lie, I love a good chord progression. Lyrics are too childish for my taste but that arrangement, wow. Tasty stuff, even if it's same old. I don't really know if the "just clap your hands" is really necessary though. Music video doesn't offer much new, but I'm having difficulty connecting this song to the surprisingly young face of Lissandro. People online seem to REALLY not like this. I don't really get it.
Georgia: Mariam Bigvava - I Believe
Great voice, really powerful song. That last 30 seconds or so are screaming jury bait. As it stands it appears either Georgia or Kazakhstan are winning the jury vote. I can't really parse the English bits sadly. Something something what we always something something. But yeah, really powerful stuff, and I also think the vocal effects are cool. Love her hair as well. If I'm being honest I think I prefer Let's Count The Smiles over this, because I find this just a tad too repetitive, and the chorus melody is a bit off to me as well, but I also understand that I'm probably in the minority with that opinion. Both Georgian entries are absolutely excellent tracks though.
Ireland: Sophie Lennon - Solas
Honestly, I can't even fault this. Instrumentation (THAT HARP), progression, lyrics, everything. (Shoutout to TG4 for putting an English translation to the lyrics on the music video.) It's just perfect. I'm normally the biggest hater of key changes, but it just works here. The song just SOUNDS Irish. You cannot possibly mistake this for another country. Surely we're looking at a top 10 placement here AT LEAST.
Italy: Chanel Dilecta - Bla Bla Bla
I really don't have much to say about this. It's kinda camp, not to the extent of Malta but still pretty camp. But in the wider picture it's just forgettable. Inoffensive. Bound to be overshadowed by the next big ballad (or even bop) that comes on. 100% a downgrade from Specchio.
Kazakhstan: David Charlin - Jer-Ana
Mucho CGI in the music video. I don't know what most of the lyrics talk about (obviously) but it's got a very epic vibe. (In the "big, grand" sense, not the internet sense.) Really nice instrumentation as well, and a very smart idea to lead off using English and then slowly getting into Kazakh. And knowing what Kazakhstan has brought to JESC since 2018, we know they can pull off some damn good staging. We might well be looking at the jury winner here, since of course Charlin also has a big voice.
Malta: Gaia Gambuzza - Diamonds in the Skies
Reeks of Swedish, both structurally and lyrically. The performance is camp at best. She's not entirely able to hit the notes either. I'm not sure how people think this is at the level of the Netherlands.
Netherlands: Luna - La Festa
Great dancer and performer, no doubt there. Choreo ain't half bad either. But the song is too childish for my liking. Cliche Italian words thrown into the chorus, and even a key change in 2022, ugh. Now that I think about it, this might became the Tic Tac of 2022. Charismatic performance with a clearly child-oriented song, does well with the juries but then falters in the televote.
North Macedonia: Lara ft. Jovan and Irina - Životot E Pred Mene
My confusion over Irina being sidelined aside, honestly not too bad. Far from winning material, but it's pretty solid. The rap part does seem a little out of place though. I also feel like there's something wrong with the chorus, but I can't really put my finger on it.
Poland: Laura Bączkiewicz - To The Moon
Great instrumentation and pretty good composition. But just like with France, there's an element of same old. And in this case there's not really that much setting it apart from previous Polish entries - it's just pop. And there's not really even a hook in the song, unlike Somebody. "I think you're ready now" doesn't really cut it. But still, again, good composition and instrumentation. The revamp doesn't really change much. I'd argue it even made the song a bit worse, because the new English lyrics sound cliche and clunky. Also the random octave up in the last few notes is just that - random. It really doesn't serve any purpose. I'm seeing something like an Ala Tracz-type result here.
Portugal: Nicolas Alves - Anos 70
I love the grit in his voice. But it really doesn't matter when you get to the chorus, because it just...loses all momentum. Cool instrumentation, although it does sound a little bare at times. And I don't really know if ending on high notes is a good idea? Still gonna stand out for sure but I gotta say I was expecting a bit more. Oh well. I normally don't like Brazilian Portuguese but it's alright here. Definitely an improvement from O Rapaz for me, but Portugal ain't winning this year.
Serbia: Katarina Savić - Svet Bez Granica
I can see the Nocturne comparisons, but I don't think this is superior in any way. It's better than Oči Deteta from last year, but I wouldn't really call it groundbreaking. The trombone is cool but I think that a) they could've given it a little bit more prominent of a role and b) I don't think it really fits this genre of music. Source: I was in the school orchestra for 4 or 5 years, and then a wind band before that. And why is the music video filmed in a mall?
Spain: Carlos Higes - Señorita
The mix of English and Spanish in this instance feels a bit forced. Good choreography in the music video though, and I'm sure Carlos can sing given he was on La Voz Kids. The chorus seemed to falter a bit though at least in my eyes, compared to the pre-chorus and the build up. I also thought there was some kind of breakdown thingy, but turns out it was just leading back up to the pre-chorus. Overall it's not bad, but I don't see this winning the contest. Also a bit disappointed that there wasn't any Armenian language in there, given that he sang Colours Of Your Dream (Armenia 2019) at La Voz Kids and pronounced the Armenian words very well. Though it would maybe break the vibe a little bit? No clue.
Ukraine: Zlata Dziunka - Nezlamna
It's a cool tune to listen to in your spare time, but it's really not all that memorable. And honestly if you're gonna put in two lines of English and call it a day, you might as well just not do it in the first place. What if this wins? Well...let's see if it even happens first. The revamp I think doesn't improve it massively. A richer instrumentation, absolutely, but at its core the song really hasn't changed much in terms of tempo, lyrics, melody etc.. And I don't know about you, but I find the English in the build-up to the climax really jarring, and the climax itself isn't huge. I fear that the song never really had much revamp potential to begin with. Still far from a winning contender if you ask me. Not impressed.
United Kingdom: Freya Skye - Lose My Head
The one to beat I think. It didn't astound me quite as much compared to Qami Qami, but still a REALLY strong entry coming from the UK here. This completely sounds like something that would play on the radio, and that 13 year olds these days would actually listen to, as opposed to something going "let's go, let's go, let's go". That BASS too. Freya is just oozing with attitude and sass in the MV (and of course stage presence), and given that she was selected through live auditions, I'd assume she can sing live as well. Dan Shipton, the person who staged Space Man, is staging this as well, and has implied that there will be a set on the stage. So good staging is coming. For all these reasons, it appears to me that the UK is the one to beat.
And if you want to read my less formally typed reactions, here they are in tweet form:
Possible Winners
Now this is not something I usually do. But I might have a crack at it as if I was a second-rate Eurovision Youtuber. I'd normally rank it by likelihood of victory, but JESC rules specifically state to not over-emphasize the competitive aspect of the competition, so I'll just go by alphabetical order.
Possible Winner 1: Armenia
Who said Armenia couldn't pull a Poland and win on home turf? When this first came out many were saying essentially that it's good, but not winner worthy. I do tend to agree, but the stats say otherwise. As of writing this, and it seems like it may not change any more, Dance! is the MOST VIEWED MUSIC VIDEO on the JESC Youtube channel this year. And remember, Dance was released last out of all the songs! Yes, you can say it's the diaspora coming out en masse, but remember that the views on Youtube roughly correspond to the televote in JESC, since it's an online thing. And no one was really surprised that Qami Qami got the attention that it had, since almost everyone agreed that it was the undisputed winner. But for Dance, an allegedly not-winner-worthy track to be the most viewed music video? You better believe that this will be at least top 3 in the televote. And if Nare pulls off the two high notes (remember there's a random one in the second verse) live well, she could get a pretty good jury score as well. Considering Armenia's thrown about the budget of a Nordic ADULT Eurovision into this year, I doubt they'd want to do a second one, but they might just have to.
Possible Winner 2: Georgia
Some stats for you: firstly, after Armenia won in 2010 and hosted in Yerevan in 2011, Georgia won, and one of the members of the group was named Mariam. And all three of the Georgian JESC victors so far are either themselves named Mariam or contain one or more members named Mariam. (In fact, Bzikebi is 2/3 Mariam.) And the worst placement for any Mariam or Mariam-containing entry was 6th. So if Bigvava Mariam ends up anywhere outside the top 6 then I'll be very much surprised. And the fans love it! Georgia has been holding a very stable second place in the Eurovision Scoreboard app. The song itself is a strong emotional power ballad, with very clear and powerful instrumentals, especially the drums. Given the current circumstances, it's easy to see why this could garner a lot of support from the public. The jury is out of the question - just listen to the last 30 seconds! If Georgia isn't top 3 in the jury then I would also be surprised. The question then is whether the general public will get behind this entry. If they do, then history (that is, 2010) may very well repeat itself, and we'll find ourselves in Tbilisi this time next year.
Possible Winner 3: Ireland
This feels surreal even as I write it out. Ireland, who's never even been in the top 10 at Junior Eurovision, and something of a has-been in adult Eurovision since the 2000s, genuinely considered a potential candidate for victory in Yerevan. I know I said I wouldn't rank these by probability, but I will say this is probably among the lower echelons of potential winners. But I think it's still worth taking into consideration. Ireland just GETS ballads. The instrumentation (especially the harp and accordion), the progression, even the normally outdated key change - it all just works here. Add on top of that the beautifully melodic Irish language and the wonderful lyrics, and you've got a masterpiece on your hands. Sophie's not sung this live yet, but looking at the footage of Junior Eurovision Eire, her live vocals are flawless even in front of a live audience. Handles high notes with ease, so I can't see this song being particularly a vocal challenge for her. That said, Banshee was something of a fan favourite in 2019 as well (even though I haven't heard the song), and that didn't do nearly as well as was hoped, so this could very much be a similar scenario. TG4 might also not have the budget for elaborate staging, unlike RTE. Nonetheless, if it's enough to bring a tear to the eye of some random Youtuber, it might just be enough to see Sophie Lennon take the crystal trophy from Malena.
Possible Winner 4: Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is another one of the geographical anomalies at Eurovision alongside Australia, and this year they've come with an epic ballad. I will say, even Kazakhstan lovers are recognizing that this is now the 5th year in a row that they've sent an ethnic-sounding Kazakh-language ballad, so casual viewers may also feel that this has the "same old" element within it. Nonetheless, Kazakhstan tends to do really well with the juries, and they've gotten 2nd place twice. With enough public support, perhaps they could do one better, and become the first and only central Asian winner of Junior Eurovision. Whether they could then debut at adult Eurovision is another question.
Possible Winner 5: Netherlands
La Festa is catchy, there's no denying that. Luna sings quite well and is an excellent performer if nothing else. It's a very stable 3rd on the Eurovision Scoreboard app. If we take all JESC2022-related videos into account regardless of channel of origin, then THIS is actually the most viewed JESC video of the year, with a whopping 1.1M views on the live performance on the Junior Songfestival channel, compared to, as I write this, 570K views on Dance. So you can see the Dutch are REALLY getting behind their own entry. And why wouldn't they? It's the definition of a good JESC song. It sounds like a kids' song, it's got a very clear and memorable hook, and it's really good fun. Televote will LOVE this no doubt. It's just whether the juries will support this. If you thought the UK getting last place and then 2nd in adult Eurovision was good, then wait till the Netherlands WINS after getting last place the year before. Ayana was robbed. Speaking of countries getting behind their own entries though...
Possible Winner 6: Spain
The televote for Spain is gonna be HUGE. Top 5 no doubt, maybe top 3. RTVE has been promoting this as much as possible domestically, to the point where several of the contestants in Benidorm Fest 2023 have been posting TikToks of themselves taking part in the "Señorita Challenge". It's now just a question of whether the jury will get behind this entry. If so, Spain would see themselves win the contest for the first time since 2004. Coincidentally, the 2004 winner is currently heavily pregnant and unable to make it to Yerevan for the winners' reunion because of that. Time flies, eh. Nonetheless, some have raised concerns that the Spanish entry really does not stand out that much in recaps and such, so outside of Spain the song may get just a little bit forgettable for some. But you never know.
Possible Winner 7: Ukraine
I'm not really even gonna talk about this too much. We could very well see Zlata Dziunka pull a Kalush Orchestra in the televote, and that's kinda the end of it. There might be a lot more of a reaction if Zlata wins though, compared to Kalush. Many people, including myself, really did genuinely like Stefania a lot; I have seen at most 2 or 3 fan rankings placing this anywhere outside the BOTTOM 5, so clearly it's much less popular than Stefania. On the Eurovision Scoreboard app it's 2nd to last behind Albania; Stefania was 7th. I thought perhaps the revamp could change things, but after listening to it I'm not really convinced it can.
Possible Winner 8: United Kingdom
It's truly a strange time to be a Eurofan. After two decades of the UK being, like Ireland, a has-been at adult Eurovision, not only do they win the jury and get 2nd overall in Turin, but then proceed to send an absolute banger to Junior Eurovision and become the overwhelming fan favourite. Top 5 in almost everyone's top lists, except for those on Twitter with different tastes. Not knocking them, but honestly you'd be hard pressed to find someone who actively dislikes the track. First place in the Eurovision Scoreboard app. Never escapes potential winner discussion. Like I wrote in my initial comments, I think this is the one to beat, as things stand. OK, maybe the performance on Children In Need wasn't perfect, but it really wasn't as bad as British locals made it out to be. Hell, Qami Qami live wasn't perfect either. Plus Dan Shipton is doing the staging. The man who staged the runner-up in Turin. I can absolutely envisage UK pulling an Arcade/1944 and neither winning jury nor televote but getting enough points to win overall. Glasgow 2023 may not have happened with the adult contest, but it might yet happen for Junior.
Predictions
Disclaimer: I am TERRIBLE at predictions. Last year I did some JESC predictions as well, and I only got *4* countries right. To be fair I did get the entire top 3 in terms of countries, just was surprised by the French televote flop. Nonetheless, here's my predicted top 16:
United Kingdom
Armenia
Netherlands
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Ireland
Poland
Spain
Ukraine
France
Italy
Serbia
Malta
North Macedonia
Portugal
Albania
This could change at any time, but a few points of explanation:
I reckon Georgia will win the D minor power ballad battle against Kazakhstan. It's relatively less same-old.
Likewise I think Armenia will win the catchy fun bop battle.
I'm sorry, but I don't see Spain doing exceptionally well in the jury. In fact, now that I think about it, there was pretty large hype surrounding Levi Diaz as well in Spain, and of course his televote score really wasn't that high. So this could happen to Carlos Higes this year. And again, the "same old" factor. Saw quite a few people compare this to Palante in 2020.
Ukraine is the huge unknown. There's no way of knowing whether the public will come out in support of Zlata Dziunka as they did with Kalush Orchestra. But as things stand I find it not as likely. At best I think maybe we'd be looking at a Vazhil-type result, but I'm putting it 9th for now.
I like France honestly but it appears people aren't as keen. And if Eurofans aren't keen on it, and Tic Tac flopped despite being the favourite of many Eurofans, what's to say this will do any good in the televote? France knows how to stage though, so watch out.
Had to throw a few nuts results in there, and for me that's Italy only at 11th. In the run of the songs I think Italy just isn't as memorable as the other catchy kid-leaning upbeat entries, i.e. Netherlands and Armenia. Plus as 2021 clearly demonstrated, the televote doesn't really have a tendency to vote for Italy. But they're putting it on Rai 1 this year so who knows. Domestic vote could be big.
Likewise North Macedonia isn't really the most standout of songs, but I'd love to be proven wrong on their eventual ranking.
I love Nicolas Alves, but this is REALLY left field for Junior Eurovision. Really don't see much people voting for this sadly.
If there is any outcome in which Albania does not come last I'll be pretty surprised. Then again, we said the same thing about Bulgaria last year. So who knows.
Alright, I've suddenly gotten the idea to try to predict the top 3 each for televote and jury vote. Didn't do this in the past, but I think it'd be fun. So, for the televote, I think the top 3 will be:
Armenia
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Judging mostly by the views on the JESC Youtube channel as well as the Junior Songfestival channel. Armenians and their diaspora are gonna come out to vote EN MASSE, mark my words. But we also can't ignore the British domestic vote. Plus lots of people from other countries will like these songs as well. And for jury:
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Ireland
OK I must confess that the third one is pure wishful thinking on my part. Were I more realistic, I could maybe put any one of the three televote toppers at that spot (or even France), which would be the most decisive in terms of determining a winner. And of course the jury love a bit of Georgia and Kazakhstan. But I truly do think Ireland has something great on their hands this year, and I really pray that they don't get underrated.
So that's what I think about Junior Eurovision 2022! An alright year, with less of an obvious winner than last year. Although I must say I had more absolute favourites last year. Armenia, Italy, Georgia, and Ukraine were all damn good. Even some of the ones I didn't like I could recognize the quality, like France and Azerbaijan. This year I only really feel an attachment to my top three. Netherlands and Georgia are nice but not up my alley. Kazakhstan would be great if I wasn't getting tired of their same old. Otherwise it's pretty mid all around I'm afraid.
Here's my video explaining a bit about this blog post, although it doesn't feature my top 3 televote and jury vote predictions:
I might do an after-thoughts video for JESC2022, but that'll probably have to wait until after the 20th, because exams. Might put up a blog post talking about it in the meantime though. And of course I'll stream or at least record my reaction to the voting live. At other times during the show I'll simply be tweeting about it. Now is the time to remind you that I'm always on Twitter @BlueRigel4, even though the elongated muskrat is turning the thing into a dumpster fire. But it's OUR dumpster fire. (FYI: it's not going down in the next few days. Give it at least a few weeks or even months. Engineers locked out of the San Francisco office =/= all Twitter services automatically shut down.)
Comments